Yankees’ Investment In Paul Goldschmidt Should Prove To Be Wise

As usual, the New York Yankees have been in the middle of the action this offseason. Unfortunately for fans of the club, the fuss has been as much about who they haven’t gotten (Juan Soto, headed across town to the Mets) as who they have (Cody Bellinger and Devin Williams, acquired in trades with the Cubs and Brewers, and Max Fried signed away from the Braves as a free agent).

There was a modest burst of first baseman movement late in 2024, with free agents Christian Walker and Carlos Santana signing with the Astros and Guardians, Josh Naylor being traded to the Diamondbacks, and Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell both finding a new home in Washington. This game of musical chairs affected clubs still searching for below the Pete Alonso price point into action, and the Yankees got their man, Paul Goldschmidt for one year and $12.5 million.

This move kind of flew under the radar, and I’m not exactly sure why. Everything the Yankees do typically causes major ripples, and this player, though long underrated, has been an established star for an extended period of time.

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His actual 2024 performance – .245-.302-.414 slash line, 1.1 WAR – is the reason. But we’ve got ways of getting around those basic stats to get a better read of his actual current ability, so let’s use them.

Goldschmidt was extremely unlucky on both fly balls and liners in 2024. His actual Unadjusted Fly Ball and Line Drive Contact Scores of 135 and 82 were far below his adjusted marks of 169 and 102. He “should have” batted .261-.314-.466 last season, far below previous career norms, but still good enough for 113 “Tru” Production+ that was well above his 100 wRC+.

His pitcher-friendly home park in St. Louis was part of the reason for the shortfall, but so was plain bad luck.

This is the part where I have to break it to Yankee fans that his new home park isn’t going to do him any huge favors. Yankee Stadium is a decent home run park (particularly down the lines) but overall it dilutes run-scoring to about the same extent as Busch Stadium. Goldy often hits the ball to the big part of the yard, which is really big in New York.

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But I digress. Paul Goldschmidt is still an above average hitter, and about average for his position. He goes to the post almost every day, and still brings surprising defensive and baserunning value to the table at age 37. Did you know that he is an 82.8% career basestealer (169 for 204) including 91.7% (22 for 24) the last two seasons? Pretty good.

His decline phase has begun, to be sure. How do we know? His K/BB profile has steadily backslid since 2021. While his 2024 average fly ball authority (95.0 mph) tied for the second highest of his career, his average liner (94.5 mph) and grounder (86.9 mph) authority were well below career norms. When your average fly ball exit speed is higher than your average liner exit speed, it’s not a good sign. It means you’re selling out for power, basically harvesting what you’ve got left.

Now Goldschmidt isn’t done by any means. He’s still striking the ball well to all fields – he could generate a late career power bump by selling out in that manner as well. Look at it this way – once you become more aggressive and let your K/BB profile get away from you, focus on driving the ball in the air and selectively pulling for distance, you’re on borrowed time. Goldy still has one of those markers – excessive pulling – sitting unused in front of him.

He also deserves to be placed in a bit of historical perspective at this stage of his career. Baseball Reference credits him 62.8 WAR to date, Fangraphs with 56.5. That’s at the very least a borderline Hall of Famer, perhaps slightly better than that.

I have ranked all modern hitters (since 1901) by career number of combined standard deviations above league average regulars in on-base and slugging percentage. I don’t adjust for ballpark (which hurts Goldschmidt) or position (which helps him), and it’s purely an offensive stat, with no perks for defense or speed (which actually hurts him). Goldschmidt ranks as the #57 offensive player of all time by this measure, despite a slightly negative mark in 2024. He has 35.49 combined standard deviations above average is right between Joe Morgan (35.71) and Hank Greenberg (35.02), a pair of clear Hall of Famers. Eddie Mathews is #59, Vladimir Guerrero is #60 – I mean, you get the picture.

No, you do not pay free agents for what they have done – you pay them for what they are going to do. But Goldschmidt is plainly worth a one-year, $12.5 million investment at this stage of his career. I’m all over the board on what the Yanks have done this offseason – don’t mind them letting Soto walk at that price, am positive about the trade for Devin Williams with the Brewers, and feel that the Fried deal is right at about my breakeven risk/reward level. But I like this one. Floor is very high, and the ceiling is better than you think. I don’t think we’ll see an Anthony Rizzo/Jose Abreu level breakdown in 2025 – the only year the Yanks have to worry about. Now about filling their remaining holes……