Is The Walk Score Over As A Measure Of Housing Investment?

More than a decade ago, I remember walking from my apartment on Seattle’s Capitol Hill to the headquarters of Walk Score on the border of the Laurelhurst Neighborhood and the University District. I honestly don’t remember the reason for the meeting, but I think it was an informational interview. At the time, Walk Score was hot stuff, building an online product that would quantify walkability by address. For so called “urbanists,” this was a big deal, attaching a number to something that had previously been more of a qualitative feeling about why certain neighborhoods were better than others for the environment, health, and especially for affordability. Has the age of Walk Score ended? Do falling condo prices indicate that walkability doesn’t matter anymore?

I’ll state my theory up front: My own personal experience leads me to believe that the era of buying smaller units in densely populated neighborhoods in big cities is over – for now. Let’s take a look at some numbers from a great data site Urban Living: Seattle Real Estate. I’m looking at numbers from October 2018 when I bought my condominium in Seattle’s Capitol Hill to November of 2024. These numbers are for Downtown Seattle, more specifically, the Belltown neighborhood, which has a Walk Score of 98, a “walker’s paradise.” The rate of inflation for the period was an increase of 3.6%. I have not adjusted the numbers here.

Downtown Seattle Condo Median Sales Price

October, 2018—$675,000

November, 2024—$613,475

Change: – 9.11%

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Downtown Seattle Condo Median Sales Price per Square Foot

October, 2018—$745

November, 2024—$749

Change: +.54%

Downtown Seattle Condo Median Days on Market

October, 2018—35

November, 2024—46

Change: +31%

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Seattle Condo Months of Supply Inventory

October, 2018—44

November, 2024—29

Change: +34%

Let me throw in a case study here for a condo purchased in Seattle for a 500 square foot condo purchased at the median sales price in October 2018, about $372,500 or $744 per square foot. With a small down payment ($2,000) the monthly mortgage is about $2,000. After paying on the loan for 6 years, the balance is $331,176. If the condo sells for the current median sales price of $749, it will sell for $374,500. Assuming 6% for agent costs, closing fees and minor repairs, the seller will walk away with $9,464.

Walk Score’s mission statement from its website is “to promote walkable neighborhoods. Walkable neighborhoods are one of the simplest and best solutions for the environment, our health, and our economy.”

I completely agree with this mission. This isn’t a post trashing Walk Score. But, if we consider the choice made by the buyer of the condo back in 2018, to live in a very walkable neighborhood, it had better not have been because it was an investment. Had the buyer bought the house at 1004 1st Street NE in Auburn, Walk Score 33, she would have paid about $280,000 for a 1,500 3 bedroom, 2 bath house that is selling today for $485,000. The balance on the loan, with all the same inputs, would be $248,448, and she would walk away today with about $193,000.

Obviously, this is not a longitudinal study. I love Walk Score, and I want to live in a place with a score of 100. My neighborhood in Seattle registers in the high 90s. But people seem to be saying, “No, we don’t want to live in these neighborhoods.” Stagnant and falling prices, and a long time sitting on the market tell us that the condo in a high Walk Score neighborhood isn’t selling.

I find this disturbing. The entire project I’ve been engaged in most of my professional life is the idea that living in dense, walkable, transit-oriented communities is not only desirable, better for the environment, more affordable, but also a good investment. I actually made this bet myself, buying a condo in just such a place. I’m now stuck with an “asset” that will yield very little. That part bothers me less than the idea than the apparent reality that values and interests have shifted; people seem to be eschewing the walkable neighborhood. What’s next for the rest of the decade. I’ll dig into that in my next post.